Market Overview

After making new lows in the Black Monday , the Dollar is back to the middle range of the last 5 months with a sharply reversal which could lead to a strong breakout to the upside especially with the FED meeting on 17th September . But is this really how it’s going to end ? I mean this big Triangle range correction that looks too easy to catch for everyone by just calling it a Flag for a continuation to the upside . Yes It could be a simple clear path that you can enjoy the ride for new highs, but what if this correction still has more room to go into the downside for one more time before reversing ?

Healthy trends would always correct at least 50% of it’s last move so technically the dollar needs to visit the 90 area which I started looking for since last April but market stalled in this range and started consuming Time which is totally acceptable because correcting one year of a strong trend needs time and like W.D Gann said “When Time comes Price Moves“ and we are approaching the final stage of this boring cycle which as always coincide ”by chance” with big events …

“ Shemitah , Fed , China ect … “ is just the trigger for a spiky big moves which you can’t always catch but you should at least prepare for it If you don’t want to miss the action. There will always be plenty of aggressive moves that you can’t predict just try to be in the right side and always limit your risk and protect your account.

Like Dale JPinkert says “ A chart is worth 1000 words “ so let check my Charts  :


USD Index ( DXY )needs to make a reversal after reaching the resistance area 97.60 – 96.60 ( Scenario Invalid above it ) and the fall down to 93 for a start then could go all the way down to 90 – 87

USDIndexDaily
USDIndex Daily Chart

USDJPY  needs a daily close below 118 to confirm the possibility of a move back to 112 -110 which will represent a nice long opportunity in the future

USDJPYDaily
USDJPY Daily Chart

USDCAD could still make new highs but will need to make a 50% pullback to correct the last rally

USDCAD Daily
USDCAD Daily Chart

EURUSD (EURO ) should hold above 1.0950 for a move higher at least toward 1.8 before falling down or continuing to 1.22

EURUSD Daily Chart
EURUSD Daily Chart
EURUSD Daily Chart
EURUSD Daily Chart 

GBPUSD (POUND) looking weak after these 2 bearish weekly candles but it’s in the area where a reversal should happens to retest 1.57 or even go to 1.61

GBPUSD Daily Chart
GBPUSD Daily Chart
GBPUSD Daily Chart
GBPUSD Daily Chart

This analysis is based on grounds that the dollar didn’t finish the correction and needs another leg lower before moving higher . I’m only showing the expected move by thick lines but there is a lot of work behind it not just some random ideas.
Tools : Fibonacci lines , Harmonic Patterns , Market Correlation , Gann Cycles

I’ll be doing a separated article about indices & commodities so till then trade safely and always :
Trade What You See Not What You Think

AlienOvichO

Full time Trader & Analyst